The Man Who Predicts The Medals: Olympic Spoiler Alert
Economist Daniel Johnson makes remarkably accurate Olympic medal predictions. The professor doesn’t look at the athletes or the events but uses economic variables to come up with his picks.
His forecast model predicts a country’s Olympic performance using per-capita income (the economic output per person), the nation’s population, its political structure, its climate and the home-field advantage for hosting the Games or living nearby. “It’s just pure economics,” Johnson says. “I know nothing about the athletes. And even if I did, I didn’t include it.”
Johnson is predicting that Canada, the US, Norway, Austria, and Sweden will end up on top of the medal count.
Accuracy rate of Johnson’s predictions for total medals won by a country:
2008 Beijing Summer Games: 93%
2006 Torino Winter Games: 93%
2004 Athens Summer Games: 94%
2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games: 94%
2000 Sydney Summer Games: 95%
Accuracy rate of Johnson’s predictions for gold medals won by a country:
2008 Beijing Summer Games: 92%
2006 Torino Winter Games: 89%
2004 Athens Summer Games: 86%
2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games: 85%
2000 Sydney Summer Games: 84%
